SMARTPHONES Looking Forward to 2012: Apple TV, iPhone 5 and Goodnight PCs

Onward, tablets, smartphones and post-PC (yet still just as much “personal computing”) devices — call them whatever you like, 2012 will see a glut of me-too mobiles designed to untether us from stodgy office desktops and augment our everyday, ordinary activities by slipping into our everyday, ordinary surroundings. With that in mind, here’s my list of up-and-coming 2012 tech picks:

Apple TV, the Next Generation

The trouble my 37-inch, four-year-old LG 1080p LCD TV has squeezing inside my mammoth mission-style entertainment center aside, I’ve been eyeballing a new TV all year. I already have an Apple TV, but we’re talking the tiny black box, not a full-blown TV set. So when I say I’m eyeballing an Apple TV, let there be no confusion — I’m speaking of the rumored 32- and 37-inch Apple television sets due sometime this summer, not the device I only use to stream my music library to the living room.

Apple’s challenge, assuming these things are real, is twofold: Leapfrogging the current black box Apple TV’s features, and pricing its televisions competitively (assuming it wants to sell these things mainstream, anyway). Feature-wise, Apple needs to do more than offer access to a few third-party services and stream iTunes media from an Apple computer (it needs to be more than just an Apple TV inside an Apple-branded television, in other words) so here’s my wish list: An Apple TV that could sync wirelessly with iOS devices, allowing video, photos and even apps or games to appear (magically!) on the TV without cables, and a Siri-like voice command feature, making an appearance alongside a motion-control interface similar to (but ideally miles better than) Microsoft’s Kinect. Bring it on, Apple!

(MORE: Looking Forward to 2012: The End of Media Ownership)

iPhone 5 or Android Whatever

The iPhone 4 I picked up last February — my first iPhone, if it matters — has been a mostly up experience. It’s quick, dependable, swarming with apps that cover all my bases and not a total disaster when texting so long as I use just one finger (in lieu of two thumbs). My only complaints: The screen is too small, the phone’s too breakable (all glass, front and back) and I’m still not sold on finger-gaming, especially first-person stuff where I’m fighting just to see around my thumbs (would someone please release a thumbstick snap-around like the 3DS’s add-on already?). I have mixed feelings about most Android phones, but after playing with a friend’s Galaxy Nexus, I’ve sort of done a one-eighty: Unless the iPhone 5 is thinner and has an edge-to-edge 4.65-inch or larger display, I may just pick up a Galaxy Nexus to go hand-in-glove with a new Windows-based, gaming-angled ultrabook.

Goodbye forever, desktop PCs — hello ultrabooks and tablets!

I ditched my tricked-out Windows desktop PC a few weeks ago — good night, good luck (and, with all due respect, good riddance). I barely touched the thing in 2011, and I’ve jettisoned any nostalgic sentiments I once had for screwing around with soldering circuits or tweaking liquid cooling kits. My work machine’s now an 11-inch MacBook Air, though it might as well be a Windows-based ultrabook. I love OS X, but I’m almost as fond of Windows 7, and since I’ve kept my personal and work data agnostic, organized and easy to migrate, I’ll be happy to switch if the right hardware comes along (hello Razer Blade!). The desktop PC is a dinosaur, and Moore’s Law ceased to matter years ago (just because computing power doubles in a given period doesn’t mean app requirements or consumer needs do), so bring on the souped-up ultraportables and 2012′s enhanced tablets (be they Android or iOS based), and may the space beneath (or beside) our desks, chairs and tables remain case- and cable-free forever.

Looking Forward to 2012: Credible iPad Threats

The iPad is a great tablet, but you know what’s even better? Competition. Unfortunately, there wasn’t much of that in 2011, as Apple’s rivals rushed out clunky, expensive tablets based on Android Honeycomb, which itself was buggy and short on proper tablet apps. Next year will be better — I hope.

The Amazon Factor

Android tablet makers had three big problems in 2011: their hardware wasn’t cheap enough, the software wasn’t polished enough, and there weren’t enough apps compared with the iPad. Amazon tried to fix these flaws with the Kindle Fire, a 7-in. (18 cm) tablet that costs $199 and runs a heavily modified version of Android. The interface is easy to understand, and because of the small screen size, Amazon could get away with offering Android smart-phone apps slightly blown up to fit the larger display.

(MORE: Amazon: “Kindle Fire is the most successful product we’ve ever launched.”)

You might argue that Amazon’s Kindle Fire is already providing serious competition to the iPad, but as a smaller tablet at a much lower price, the Fire caters to a different market than the iPad does. Amazon’s tablet is a cheap content-consumption device, whereas the iPad is primarily a way to enjoy big-screen tablet apps. These two tablets can thrive independently.

That’s not to say Amazon won’t go after the iPad in 2012. Rumor has it that Amazon is working on new Kindle Fires with 8.9-in. (22.6 cm) and 10.1-in. (25.7 cm) displays, DigiTimes has reported. If true, these tablets would likely undercut the iPad on pricing and would use the same simple interface as the original Kindle Fire. And because the original Kindle Fire is a hit, a larger Amazon tablet would likely draw interest from developers, who would finally start tailoring their Android apps to bigger screens.

Taking this speculation a bit further, a larger Kindle Fire could have a ripple effect on other tablets. Apps developed for Amazon’s tablets could also be made available through the Android Market, alleviating the app shortages of other Android tablets. But those rival tabletmakers would have to slash prices to compete with Amazon. Apple, meanwhile, may decide to keep selling earlier iPads at lower prices, as it does now with the iPhone. Consumers who have no interest in the Kindle Fire may still benefit from Amazon’s making larger tablets, simply because of how other companies respond.

Windows Strikes Back

After two years of staying out of the tablet wars, Microsoft will roll the dice in 2012 with Windows 8. The operating system will sport some radical changes, including an interface designed for touchscreens and an app store for tablet software.

What makes Windows 8 intriguing is that — depending on what type of processor is inside — it’ll still support the classic Windows desktop and legacy software. And because Windows is at the core, all devices will support external mice and keyboards, complete with helpful shortcuts like copy and paste. This opens the possibility of having a single device that can act like a tablet, a laptop or a desktop as users attach keyboards, mice and external monitors. That’s one way to answer the all-important question: Why should someone buy this instead of an iPad?

The first tablets based on Windows 8 are expected in the second half of next year. Because millions of people will get Windows 8 as they upgrade to new PCs, Microsoft’s mission is simple: slow the iPad’s ascent by selling people on Windows machines with touchscreens.

Despite these threats, the iPad isn’t in any serious trouble next year. It remains the gold standard for tablets, and most competitors won’t have a chance. But at least 2012 will bring products with clear strategies for competing with Apple. That’s enough to make me optimistic.